Inventory and Profitability Analysis
Inventory and Profitability Analysis
Decision Tables
Data Results
Profit Large Crowd Average Crowd Small Crowd EMV Minimum Maximum
Probability 0.3 0.5 0.2
Large Inventory $ 20,000 $ 10,000 $ (2,000) $ 10,600 $ (2,000) $ 20,000
Average Inventory $ 15,000 $ 12,000 $ 6,000 $ 11,700 $ 6,000 $ 15,000
Small Inventory $ 9,000 $ 6,000 $ 5,000 $ 6,700 $ 5,000 $ 9,000
Maximum 11700 6000 20000
Expected Value of Perfect Information
Column best 20000 12000 6000 13200 <-Expected value under certainty
11700 <-Best expected value
1500 <-Expected value of perfect information
Regret
Large Crowd Average Crowd Small Crowd Expected Maximum
Probability 0.3 0.5 0.2
Large Inventory 0 2000 8000 2600 8000
Average Inventory 5000 0 0 1500 5000
Small Inventory 11000 6000 1000 6500 11000
Minimum 1500 5000
From the above tables, we see that having the average inventory yields the best EMV.
The expected value of perfect information is $1,500.